The fourth Test of the England vs India series is set for a thrilling start at Emirates Old Trafford, Manchester, on July 23, 2025. With rain forecasted and both teams poised for a battle, here’s a concise, data-driven match analysis and prediction.
Form & Key Factors
England
- Momentum & Home Conditions: Fresh off a tight 22-run win at Lord’s, England boast high morale. Jofra Archer’s return strengthens a formidable pace attack, while the inclusion of Liam Dawson adds spin depth.
- Captain’s Impact: Ben Stokes continues to shine all-round, leading from the front with bat and ball.
- In-Form Players: Joe Root (253 runs in the series), Jamie Smith (450 runs, avg 103.75), Stokes (163 runs & 11 wickets).
- Key Change: Shoaib Bashir is out, replaced by Dawson.
India
- Injury Concerns: India’s squad is severely tested by injuries, especially in the pace department. Youngster Anshul Kamboj is in line for a debut.
- Positives: Rishabh Pant has returned post-injury and is in good touch; Shubman Gill (607 runs, avg 101.16) is in the form of his life; Jasprit Bumrah remains a constant threat with 12 wickets at an average of 21.
- Key Recovery: Pant fit again; potential returns of Sai Sudharsan and others could freshen the XI.
Head-to-Head (Tests)
| Team | Matches Played | Won | Lost | Drawn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 139 | 53 | 36 | 50 |
| India | 139 | 36 | 53 | 50 |
England have historically had the edge, especially at home.
Old Trafford Pitch & Weather Report
- Surface: Traditionally favours seam and swing, especially under cloudy conditions. However, recent years have seen it get slower, giving something to batters as the game progresses.
- Rain Factor: Weather forecast suggests three days of potential rain, which could offer movement for fast bowlers but may also disrupt play.
- Tactical Insight: The side winning the toss is likely to bowl first to exploit early moisture and overcast skies; batting gets easier as the surface settles.
Players To Watch
- England: Joe Root, Jamie Smith, Ben Stokes, Jofra Archer, Harry Brook, Ben Duckett.
- India: Shubman Gill, Rishabh Pant, Jasprit Bumrah, KL Rahul, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Siraj.
Predicted Scores by Innings
- 1st Innings: 280–300
- 2nd Innings: 340–370
- 3rd Innings: 300–320
- 4th Innings: 250–270
Today’s Match Prediction
Given the pace-friendly, rain-affected conditions likely to prevail, and England’s recent form and home advantage:
- England enter as slight favourites, especially with a near full-strength squad and potent seam attack.
- India’s hopes rest on the form of their top order (Gill, Pant) and Bumrah’s ability to strike early, but injuries and a less experienced bowling group may hurt their consistency.
- Who Will Win? If overhead conditions persist and the pitch aids movement, the team bowling first (most likely England if they win the toss) should have the advantage in this contest.
- A Draw is possible if rain significantly disrupts play, so keep an eye on updated forecasts.
Expert Edge: England, boosted by home conditions and momentum, have a 55–60% chance to clinch the 4th Test—unless India’s key players deliver big on the day.
Note: Weather interruptions could quickly alter the course and outcome, so revisit your predictions after the toss and team announcements.
