As the World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final at Lord’s approaches, Australia, as is typical in ICC tournaments, are the firm favorites. South Africa may have finished marginally ahead in the standings, but the Australian squad has a significant edge in terms of experience. With a combined total of 772 Test caps, Australia’s 15-member squad boasts about double the experience of South Africa’s 367. Australia’s players have collectively made 120 appearances in England, while South Africa’s nine squad members have played 28. The disparity is striking: Steven Smith alone has scored 2255 Test runs in England, more than three times the total runs of the entire South African squad, which stands at 771.
While Australia’s bowling attack also holds a significant advantage, with each of the four lead bowlers having 50-plus Test wickets in England, South Africa’s bowlers have collectively taken 62 wickets in the country. However, the history of cricket has often produced miraculous results against all odds, so despite these statistics, the game remains finely poised.
What Does the Venue Hold?
Lord’s has been a favorable venue for both teams, with Australia holding an impressive win-loss ratio of 2.571 at the iconic ground, better than England’s 1.685. Australia has won 12 out of the 23 Tests they’ve played here post-WWII, with nine draws and just two losses. South Africa, meanwhile, has enjoyed a strong record since their readmission to international cricket, winning five of their seven Tests at Lord’s, including a memorable draw in 2008 after a 346-run first-innings deficit. It was at Lord’s that they secured their first major win under Graeme Smith in 2003, and a decade later, clinched the WTC title.
Pace vs Spin at Lord’s
Lord’s is known for providing excellent conditions for seamers. Since 2022, 83.64% of overs in Tests at Lord’s have been bowled by seamers, accounting for 88.2% of wickets, excluding run-outs. The venue has the best fast-bowling average and strike rate for pacers among the six English Test venues in this period. The first innings tends to be more favorable for fast bowlers, with an average bowling average of 22.03, compared to 35.41 in the second innings.
Early Advantage – Make Hay While the Ball Shines
In recent County Championship matches, three out of four games at Lord’s have produced results, with the team bowling first emerging victorious. The average first-innings score at Lord’s since 2022 is 239, but this increases to 314 in the second innings. Historically, Lord’s has seen a significant number of wickets fall in the first session on Day 1, with an average of 22 wickets at a run rate of 2.96. This suggests that the first session will be key for both teams, with a potential advantage for the team bowling first.
Steven Smith’s Test Supremacy
In the last WTC final, Australia’s 285-run partnership between Steven Smith and Travis Head set the tone, and they remain central to Australia’s plans. Smith’s average of 44.95 against South Africa is the lowest of his career, but he has been a dominant figure in England. Among visiting batters, only Sir Don Bradman has scored more Test runs and hundreds in England than Smith.
Smith has scored 2255 runs in England in 22 matches, with an average of 55, and at Lord’s, he averages 58.33, with two centuries. His record against South Africa is notable, with Smith scoring 85 and 104 in his last two innings against them. He will likely face a crucial battle against Kagiso Rabada, who has dismissed right-handed batters with balls seaming or swinging away at an average of 16.36.
Kagiso Rabada – South Africa’s Premier Match-Winner
Rabada is a proven match-winner with an impressive strike rate of 39.4. His record against Australia is formidable, with 49 wickets in 10 Tests at an average of 23.08. Rabada has also shown his prowess in England, with 30 wickets at an average of 26.06, and a stunning 5/52 at Lord’s. His record against key Australian batters like Smith and Khawaja will be vital in the final.
Key Matchups
Usman Khawaja vs Rabada
Khawaja has been in stellar form in recent years, with 3043 runs at an average of 51.57 since 2022. However, he has struggled against Rabada in Tests, averaging 30.8 against him. Rabada has dismissed Khawaja five times in their encounters, and his recent brilliance against left-handed batters will keep Khawaja on edge. Rabada averages 14.23 against left-handers in Tests since 2024, making this matchup particularly intriguing.
Markram vs Cummins
Aiden Markram was in excellent form during Australia’s tour of South Africa in 2018, but his consistency has waned since then. Cummins, who has dismissed right-handers at an average of 17.15, will be a key figure in this matchup. Markram’s weak link against pace and Cummins’ strengths make this an exciting battle.
Bavuma vs Lyon
Temba Bavuma has been one of South Africa’s standout performers, with 1690 runs at 49.70 since 2021. His excellent record against spin, averaging 81.87 against it, sets up an exciting duel with Nathan Lyon. Lyon, who is the only active bowler with 400-plus Test wickets, will be eager to prove his worth at Lord’s, where he suffered an injury in 2021. Bavuma’s ability to handle Lyon will be crucial for South Africa’s success in the final.
Conclusion:
The WTC final promises to be a thrilling contest between Australia’s experienced batting lineup and South Africa’s potent bowling attack. While Australia has the advantage in terms of experience and historical performance, South Africa has a strong record at Lord’s and a formidable bowling attack led by Rabada. With key matchups and conditions at Lord’s playing a significant role, this final could be another memorable chapter in Test cricket history.
